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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."